China Stock 中国证券

The early morning of December 17, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that the Federal Reserve will cut the benchmark interest rate to its lowest level ever, that is, the range of 0-0.25%.

on the same day, the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the ECB has cut interest rates further feel that the “limited”, as this market will be in the next year in January to terminate the current round of fall The interest rate signals. Since October, the European Central Bank has cut interest rates 175 basis points to 2.5 percent.

In contrast, China’s central bank cut interest rates in November in the 108 basis points, there are still 162 basis points rate cut of the space. And the possibility of rate cuts this year have also increased.

Industrial Bank is expected to report that this year the central bank is likely to continue to cut interest rates 27-54 basis points, at the same time, the deposit reserve rate cut may be 50-100 basis points. Shenyin Wanguo that in the next 12 months, the central bank may cut interest rates 108 basis points, while next year’s CPI growth may be -0.2%.

pressure to cut interest rates still

central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, the second this week in Hong Kong said that China between now and next year have the pressure to cut interest rates, but whether or not to cut interest rates CPI also consider the rate of decline.

going through several rounds of rate cut, cut interest rates to improve market liquidity began to show the role.

the central bank recently released financial data, 11 at the end of the renminbi loans rose by 16.03 percent, at the end of last month increased by 1.45 percentage points; month 476,900,000,000 yuan of new loans, increase the previous month 295,000,000,000 yuan , Up by more than 389,500,000,000 yuan.

positive side

capital cities but the side effects of stock market funds, fund joint strategy than the Jin and Yuan Li Fei, analysts believe that the rate cut liquidity in the stock market impact Not so obvious. “Can funds into the capital markets, particularly the stock market depends on the credit and financial activity.” He said that the current liquidity mainly concentrated in the inter-bank market and stock market liquidity due to bad judgments and is expected to Determines the fundamentals and the stock market’s performance, therefore, need to credit and M1 observation of the additional funds could enter the market.

a fixed-income fund, vice director told reporters: At present, the market funds still face-off, the plane is full of money will yield to the “1″ compression, in particular the money market interest rates 1% to close quickly. On the one hand, the recent rate cut for the frequency and magnitude rarely seen in recent years, the reserve ratio down to release about 6-8000 the volume of funds; On the other hand, in the short-term treasury bonds will usher in long-term pattern of activity: a pro-active fiscal policy, debt Or a large number of issue, in 2009 the size of this year is likely to be several times more than that.

The central bank open market operations in order to have a buy-back operation of the main trend in short-term trading of treasury bonds will be very active.

“space is expected to cut interest rates for the next 54-108 basis points.” Tianfu exchange value of the Fund for aspiring fund managers selected CHEN Xiao-xiang said that interest rates continue to drop in the process of economic recovery will be gradual This is the strongest fundamentals of the stock market. In his view, the largest category of assets next year in the relative share in cash, commodities, bonds should be able to get over earnings, the stock market will face a structural opportunities. However, the market next year would be more formidable structural differentiation, for the performance of the Fund.

“At present, bond funds have faced a very abundant.” Li told reporters, is expected to cut interest rates on the stock and bond funds will have an impact on surface, while bond funds have plenty of face However, due to the lower cost of capital, the yield will continue to lower the deposit reserve funds for the down side effects will be greater, is expected to cut interest rates on the bond market, is still a good news.

this year from the Quarterly Bulletin of interest situation, the current round of rate cuts to enhance the industry’s net profit for machinery and equipment, automobiles, building materials, chemical and power industries. Relief from the cash flow point of view, to benefit from the rate cut the home appliances industry, communications and electrical equipment, bio-medicine, basic chemical.2008-12-19

国内预计将削减利率，以异常强劲的年利率是排队资金

在12月17日凌晨，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）宣布，美联储将削减基准利率至历史最低水平，也就是说，在0-0.25％之间。

在同一天，欧洲央行行长特里谢表示，欧洲央行进一步降息，认为“有限”，因为这个市场将在明年1月将在终止当前全面下跌，利率的信号。 10月以来，欧洲央行下调利率175个基点，至2.5个百分点。

相比之下，中国央行削减利率在11月的108个基点，但仍有162个基点的空间减少。而在今年降息的可能性也有所增加。

兴业银行报告预计，今年央行可能继续降息27-54个基点，同时，存款准备金率可能会降低50-100个基点。申银万国认为在未来12个月，央行可能会降息108个基点，而明年的消费物价指数的增长可能会-0.2％。

压力，降息仍

央行行长周小川的第二本星期在香港表示，中国从现在到明年有压力，降息，但是否不降息也考虑消费物价指数的降幅。

通过几轮降息会，降低利率，以提高市场流动性开始显示作用。

中央银行最近公布的财务数据，在人民币贷款余额增长11百分之16.03，在上月底的1.45个百分点;月份新批出贷款476900000000元，比前一个月增加二千九百五十零万点零零万元，增长超过三千八百九十五点零亿元。

积极的一面

省会城市，但对股市资金的副作用，比基金金元黎肥的联合战略，分析人士认为，股市的影响并非如此降息的流动性显而易见的。 “难道资金进入资本市场，特别是股市而定。对信贷和金融活动”他说，当前流动性主要集中在银行间市场和股票市场的流动性，由于恶劣的判断，预计确定的基本原则和股票市场的表现，因此，需要信贷和货币供应量M1的额外资金可以进入的观察市场。

固定收益基金，副主任告诉记者：目前，市场资金仍然面临下岗，这架飞机是资金将会产生的“1”的压缩，特别是货币市场的利率， 1％，收盘迅速。一方面，为近期的频率和幅度减息罕见，存款准备金率下降，近年来有关6-8000释放的资金量，另一方面，在短期国债将迎来长期活动的长期解决办法：实施积极的财政政策，债务或有大量的问题在2009年，今年的规模可能比他的好几倍。

央行公开市场操作，以便有回购的短期国债的长期贸易的主要趋势，运作将非常活跃。

“空间预计将削减未来54-108个基点的利率。”天府为有志的基金经理基金的交换价值选择陈晓翔表示，利率持续下降，经济复苏的进程将是渐进的，这是股市的强劲基本面。在他看来，大类资产在明年的现金，商品的相对份额，债券应当能够获得投资收益，股市将面临结构性的机会。然而，市场明年将更加强大的结构分化，为基金的业绩。

“目前，债券基金面临着非常丰富。”李鹏告诉记者，预计将削减股票和债券基金利率将会对地面的影响，而债券基金有足够的脸，但由于资金成本低，收益率将继续降低存款准备金首期副作用会更大，预计将削减债券市场利率，仍是一个好消息。

这从利益的情况季报的一年，本轮降息，以提高行业的机械和设备，汽车净利润，建材，化工，电力等行业。从现金流角度观点救济，受惠于降息的家电行业，通讯和电力设备，生物医药，基础化工。2008-12-19